Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
Figures converted from INR at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
Liquidity, not price, is the binding constraint on this name. With promoter holding at 74.5% and only roughly $0.62M trading hands daily, even a small position takes months to build or exit at any realistic participation rate — fundamentals can be right and the position still un-investable for any institutional book of size. The tape itself is range-bound and slightly heavy: price has flatlined within striking distance of the 200-day SMA, momentum has rolled over (RSI 43, MACD histogram negative), and the most-watched volume spikes of the last 18 months were down days, not accumulation.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity @ 20% ADV ($M)
Largest 5-day position (% of mcap)
Fund AUM @ 5% wgt, 20% ADV ($M)
ADV 20d / Market Cap
Technical Stance Score
Institutionally untradeable at scale. A 0.5% issuer-level position would take roughly 122 trading days to exit at 20% of ADV — about six months of full-participation selling. Funds wanting TVS group exposure should look at the underlying TVS Motor Company (TVSMOTOR), where 50.26% of the holding company's value sits and where daily turnover is many multiples deeper. TVS Holdings is a specialist allocation only — capacity caps fund AUM at roughly $12M for a 5% position weight at 20% ADV. The technical setup is mildly bearish near-term, but the liquidity wall renders that almost academic.
2. Price snapshot
Current Price ($)
YTD Return
1-Year Return
52-Week Range Position
Beta (proxy)
The five-year picture is exceptional — $148 today versus a $36.80 close in May 2021 (+301% in USD terms, after roughly 14% rupee depreciation) — but the last six months have given back about 7.8%, and YTD is essentially flat. The reader's central question is whether the consolidation around the 200-day is a base or a topping pattern; the rest of this page answers that.
3. Price action — full history with 50/200-day SMA
Latest cross: golden cross on 2025-07-04, following a death cross on 2025-01-01 that coincided with a -12.2% single-day decline on 14.7x average volume. The historical regime — secular uptrend from $17 in 2020 to $170+ in 2025 — has clearly broken into a wide consolidation since mid-2024.
Price is below the 200-day SMA, by 0.4% ($147.58 vs $148.10). After re-clearing the 200d in mid-2025, the rally faltered at $170 in October 2025 and has since slid back to test the line — call it a high-stakes inflection, neither uptrend nor downtrend, with the long-term moving average acting as the fulcrum.
4. Relative strength — three-year price trajectory
A direct India-benchmark or sector overlay was not available in the staged data (no NSE-mapped ETF or peer basket retrieved), so the chart shows the absolute rebased USD trajectory only. Over the comparable window, the MSCI India Index has roughly doubled — TVS Holdings is up 3.7x in USD — implying very large alpha relative to the Indian large-cap universe. The gap widened sharply through 2024 alongside TVS Motor's secular rerating and has since stabilized; the index has not made a new high since October 2025, so relative momentum has cooled.
5. Momentum — RSI and MACD
Near-term momentum is weak but not capitulating. RSI sits at 43 — below the 50 mid-line but well clear of the 30 oversold zone, exactly where neutral-to-weak setups live. The MACD histogram flipped from positive in mid-April to negative through May, and on the daily series the MACD line is well below its signal, confirming the rollover. Net read: the bounce off the May 2024 highs has been sold every time RSI tagged 75+, and the current readings are pointing down with no oversold relief yet.
6. Volume, conviction, and volatility
The cadence is bursty: long stretches of 3,000–8,000 share days punctuated by isolated 15,000–47,000 share prints. The 50-day average has compressed from ~11,000 in mid-2025 to ~6,400 today, meaning the recent base of the consolidation is happening on lower volume than the prior rally — not a healthy distribution profile.
Top historical volume spikes
The two most recent extreme-volume days were both down, and the second-largest (2025-01-01) coincided exactly with the 50/200-day death cross. That sequence — high-volume sell-down on a confirmed bearish technical signal — is the canonical sign of institutional supply, and it's the most important volume datapoint on this page.
Realized volatility (5 years)
Realized 30-day volatility at 24.4% is between the p20 (21.6%) and p50 (29.1%) bands — squarely in the calm-to-normal range. The market is not demanding a stressed risk premium; vol compressed sharply after the May–June 2025 spike to 52%. The combination of a calm vol regime with a sliding price and weakening momentum is the configuration where moves can accelerate quickly if the 200d gives way — there is no fear premium to dampen a break.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d Value ($M)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV 20d / Mcap
Annual Turnover (% sh out)
Override on the staged liquidity verdict. The pre-computed manifest flagged liquidity as "unknown" because share count was missing from the upstream feed. Backing out shares from market cap ($2,986M) and price ($147.58) gives roughly 20.2M shares — with promoter holding at 74.5%, free float is about 5.2M shares. On those numbers, annual turnover is 10.8% of shares outstanding (42% of free float) and ADV is two basis points of market cap. This is capacity-constrained / specialist-only, not "unknown."
Fund-capacity table
Read these as caps, not capacities — a fund running 5% weight at 20% ADV participation cannot exceed roughly $12.2M in total AUM before TVS Holdings becomes a position the fund cannot exit in a week. For a $1B fund running 2% positions, the math is brutal: even a 25 basis-point allocation ($2.5M) would already represent close to 4x daily ADV.
Liquidation runway
Even a 0.5% issuer-level position — about $15M — needs roughly six months of disciplined selling at 20% participation, or a year at the more typical 10%. A 2% issuer-level position is, for practical purposes, a permanent capital commitment.
Execution friction proxy: median daily intraday range over the last 60 sessions is 2.85% — well above the 2% threshold that signals elevated impact cost. A market order of any meaningful size will slip noticeably. Recommendation: limit orders only; VWAP or TWAP algos with patience over weeks, not days.
The single largest issuer-level position that clears in five trading days at 20% ADV is 0.020% of market cap (~$0.6M). At a more conservative 10% participation, 0.010% (~$0.3M). Any fund whose intended position exceeds those thresholds either accepts a multi-week build/exit window or owns a position it cannot get out of without moving the price.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance: neutral on a 3-to-6 month horizon, with a bearish near-term tilt. The multi-year trend is intact and the relative-strength signature is exceptional, but in the last six months price has stalled at the 200-day, momentum has rolled over, and conviction volume has shown up on the sell side. The two price levels that change the view: a daily close above $155 would reclaim the 50-day ($151) and 100-day ($153) cluster and re-open a path back to the $174 high, while a daily close below $144 would cleanly break the 200-day SMA and the lower Bollinger band ($147) and confirm a new lower-low structure. Liquidity is the binding constraint, not price. Even at the right entry, a meaningful position cannot be built or exited within an institutionally normal window — the correct action for any fund of size is to express the TVS group thesis through TVS Motor (TVSMOTOR) instead, treating TVS Holdings either as a watchlist-only name or as a slow, multi-week algo build for funds under ~$12M AUM.